03 Aug 2020

Alert – Crime Tidal Wave on the horizon

In some countries, the police will not be able to handle the expected crime wave

Nature of the Beast

The active biological cv-19 threat has impacted on the global economy to which the illegal economy is now growing in relation to the number of people being affected. There is no way that the policing agencies in many countries will be able to cope with the coming tidal wave of crime. The solution to such, would be by activating participation by the private security industry before using military might, which is outlined in the ‘’security master plan to disable cv-19’’ (Kirsten J 2020)

The power of 2

This is the growth speed of infection when considering the count of 1-2-4-8-16-33-64….Looking at the statistics of any country and discover that the infections that numbered 80/100 00 in one month had escalated with ensuing two months to 480 000. Millions of people will lose their jobs, begin to sell their assets and the numbers of the low-income population will come onto the streets. People will refuse to stay at home and die of starvation.

Moral Code

Never say never! People have their breaking point where they will do desperate things that are against their moral code. The basic needs of man to protect and live will compromise the moral code of man. A child starving or being left sick and alone will drive any parent to do things that they would never do under normal conditions.


The population will be desperate and within the population will be people with extreme levels of frustration that will use violent methods besides the mentally unwell that could react using unknown methods. These people may believe that they will not survive the infection and therefore have nothing to lose except for leaving their family in a better situation.

The following people that have a compromised health condition may resort to crime even if they are employed, namely,

  • Any person suffering from an underlying health condition
  • Especially – Over the age of 60

Associated Crime increase in,

  • Corruption in all departments including policing and security
  • Theft of Intellectual property
  • Cyber Crime corruption as in providing access to data or sales of passwords
  • Fraud in all sectors, be it related to insurance and/or banking


Between 1929 till 1939 was the ‘Great Depression’ and the following was the 2nd world war. During this period of time organized crime families increased their wealth and using methods of corruption and intimidation to build an illegal economy. The pro-nationalists were fixated in Europe on migrants and were responsible for the genocidal death of millions.

Associated crime

  • All forms of corruption at all levels of government, non-government, and the private sector
  • Increased levels of Xenophobia attacks because of lack of jobs, which could be an excuse by pro-nationalists

Illegal Economy Structure

The controlling top of this hierarchy is transnational organized international crime, then local organized with the tailing of gang crime. These bodies require tools to grow namely manufacture, transportation, distribution, and financial collections.

They are known to capture companies or people within companies to assist in all of the above excepting financial collections which is done by their own people. Yes, companies my launder money for them but let us not consider this for this discussion just yet.

Associated Crime


The basic needs of man being air, food, water, security, shelter, and sex according to Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. We must expand on this and add new basic needs.

  • Let us consider adding PPE gear to security theft besides the increased in illegal firearm trade.
  • Water. water tanker theft or tampering with infrastructure
  • Food. Any and all foods but let us include livestock theft which hopefully will not be the pet rat or poodle.
  • Sex. People will break quarantine for love but do not discount the power of sexual addiction. It is hard to fathom that a person would compromise their health and those of their loved ones for sexual encounters.
  • Shelter. Land and home occupations by the desperate could be taken by force.

New Basic Needs of Man

  • Electricity
  • PPE equipment
  • Addictions as in any form of drug
  • Alcohol
  • Specific medication and medical devices
  • Smart phones, computers, and data
  • Transportation

Impulsive spontaneous attacks

The facial mask gives perpetrators confidence in spontaneous attacks as they do feel confident that they may not be identified. There could be a variety of distinct crime related such as, street- level retailer attacks, home invasions, burglaries, car-jackings, hi-jackings, and kidnappings (all ages and income levels)

Increased planned attacks

Gang crime will rear its head where larger soft target sites are at risk that could contain sought after products, be it from alcohol to jewelry (gold) and money (cash). These could be smaller malls, medical clinics, and hotels. Gang attacks will increase on logistics from small delivery vans to large tankers of all products

’Security Success depends on the level of situational awareness of the decision-makers on the ground and their reaction speed’’ (Kirsten, J, 2018)

The level of situational awareness simply means that, as in, ‘what is truly going on’. When one has no idea of something that exists then they do not know the full picture. Any investigation based on insufficient or unreliable information will be not serve the investigation or the judgement of any stakeholder

When the picture is not clear, then no decisions can be made, and no reaction takes place. This is the biggest nightmare for any professional is not knowing what is truly happening on the ground.

Using situational awareness, we consider the difference between a crime investigator and a security investigator. The Crime Investigator is called in after the fact. The Security Investigator is also summoned after the fact but more importantly they have to find crime and terror elements before it happens, in order to limit or mitigate collateral damage [Security and Criminology Investigation Management Vol 4, Kirsten J]

Using the method of security and criminology investigation and considering the location besides the field of interest, the practitioner would be able to evaluate their true position and the market demand for security and risk investigation, namely,

  • Soft Targets: The entire supply chain relating to the basic needs of man, as in, manufacturing, warehousing, logistics and distribution besides payment collection

The situation and the people involved

The professional know that it is not the weapon that causes crime and mayhem – it is the person. The investigator is super smart because they have to out-think and outsmart the criminal. The Master investigator uses critical thinking which is thinking out – and – in the box. They know that there are ”certain skills” to identify issues of concern that could lead to an investigation.

The professional has two foundational objectives.

  • Read a person
  • Read and Comprehend the Situation

When the big picture is understood based on all the information, then decisions can be made that will impact reaction speed. Reacting to early or to late could dissolve the outcome. For example, a person of interest can be brought in for questioning or arrested. This person could be working in concert with others, either voluntarily or under duress. Reacting to early or to late may not catch the entire team of bandits, therefore, at the right time for the right reasons under the right conditions would provide greater results.

The professional needs to be relevant.

  • What you know!
  • Who you get to know!

This means that not only will there be a greater demand for investigation but also for crime-risk assessments.

The professional knows that they have to be globally situational aware so that they know of crimes committed elsewhere and could be copied in their own location or field of interest. Therefore, they subscribe to relevant institutes, organization and media besides participating with like-minded practitioners in order to know what is truly happening in the world of crime, as in – ‘’the earlier the better’’

The Professional follows the clues (research/investigation) as in,

  • Identifies a person of interest
  • Establishes if they are working on their own or if they are working in concert with others and WHY!

A person of interest can be found by the actions that they take, therefore, by discovering a common issue in the reporting of others, the investigator can find an unusual pattern beginning. This dictates and points to the fact that professional investigators and situationally aware inside their box. They pay attention to detail and demand accurate and ALL reporting. One person may not believe something is important to report, whereas, another would find it extremely helpful.

 The formation of a criminal structure could be the form of things being done or people doing things. For example, a door that should remain shut is now being opened from time to time, or a person that was punctual is now unreliable. But, when keeping mind cv-19 and the conditions for concern, then, one can see perhaps a pattern beginning by someone that fits the criteria of high vulnerability to the threat. This person could be elderly ready for retirement and sickly besides working in a low-income bracket. This person was always trusted but desperate people could do desperate things for money, such as open the door to criminals. These may be lone criminals, or part of transnational organized crime, local organized crime, or street gangs.

The professional knows the source taps to open for information,

Knowing the sources that can provide information is vital because, this is where breadcrumbs can be found. Information can be found through many methods, be it, social media, using electronic monitoring, in social conversations, by whistle blowers that have nothing to lose or that can be paid off for information because they need the money.

The Professional is always in the loop,

The professional investigator is just as proficient as a surgeon that ensures that they are fully up to date with the knowledge besides master the art of the scalpel. Furthermore, and mostly importantly they consult with other professionals, read every medical magazine, and attend lectures. You will also find surgeons peeling apples every morning to keep their fingers nimble. The professional investigator knows this and therefore conducts their own training seriously because they are aware, they could handle deadly outcomes.

The professional investigator knows that listening to a lecture, the audience only remember 2 percent after 16 days. Evidence based Research resulted in outcomes that birthed the new generation ‘Human Investigation Management (HIM)’ being the easiest and a highly effective method of acquiring the knowledge in order to react people and the situation instinctively


Kirsten, J Critical, Human Investigation Management, Thinking the X Factor in Criminology, Security and Risk Vol 3 2018, Security and Criminology Investigation Management Vol 4 2019, Master Investigator Critical Thinking in Investigation Vol 5 2019

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